2021 DUBAI WORLD CUP ANALYSIS

RACE 2 – THE GODOLPHIN MILE (G2) $750,000 1 MILE

#8 MIDNIGHT SANDS (5/2) – LOOKS VULNERABLE. IMPRESSIVE WIN LAST OUT AT MEYDAN, BUT HIS STAKES RACES AT KEENELAND WERE TERRIBLE AND HIS IMPRESSIVE RECORD HAS BEEN AGAINST NO ONE.

#14 TUZ (5/1) – JUST FINISHED THIRD BEHIND THE TOP HORSE IN THE G3 BURJ NAHAAR BUT HE IS ALSO SUSPECT OUTSIDE OF DUBAI.

#12 SECRET AMBITION (7/1) – HAS RACED IN DUBAI HIS LAST 10 RACES AND IS GETTING LONG IN THE TOOTH AS AN 8YO WITH 41 CAREER STARTS.

#4 CHIEFDOM (101) – WAS SECOND BEHIND MIDNIGHT SANDS LAST TIME BUT IS ANOTHER WHO’S LAST 10 STARTS WERE ALL IN DUBAI

#5 DIEU DU VIN (12/1) – JAPANESE HORSE WAS FOURTH ONLY BEATEN 2 LENGTHS IN A MILLION DOLLAR RACE LAST TIME. 4YO COLT HAS BEEN FINISHING CLOSE WHILE NOT WINNING BEHIND SUPERIOR HORSES. HE HAS 3 LIFETIME WINS AT THIS MILE DISTANCE.

#2 AVANT GARDE (15/1) – INTERSTING USA BRED AND RACED HORSE WHO WHILE BEATING NO ONE LAST YEAR HAS BEEN A DIFFERENT HORSE THIS YEAR SHOWING IN THE MONEY FINISHES IN THE G3 FRED HOOPER AND THE G2 GULFSTREAM PARK MILE VS THE HIGHLY REGARDED PERFORMER. HE ALSO HAS 6 WINS AT OR ABOUT THIS DISTANCE.

#7 GOLDEN GOAL (15/1) – WAS FOURTH IN THE MIDNIGHT SANDS COMMON RACE WHO ALSO RACES ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AT MEYDAN.

#13 SNAPPY SINCLAIR (15/1) – IS ANOTHER USA INVADER WHO WHILE HE DOESN’T WIN MUCH HAS GOTTEN PIECES OF MAJOR US STAKES LIKE THE G1 CIGAR MILE, THE 750K TOURIST MILE AND THE G3 RAZORBACK AT OAKLAWN.

BETTING SUMMARY 

I CAN SEE 2 LIKELY BETTING SCENARIOS. ONE IS TO FOCUS ON THE COMMON RACE AT DUBAI THE BURJ NAHAAR, WHERE MIDNIGHT SANDS, CHIEFDOM, TUZ AND GOLDEN GOAL FINISHED 1-2-3-4, KEEPING IN MIND THAT COMMON RACES SELDOM FINISH THE SAME WAY THE SECOND TIME AROUND.

THE OTHER APPROACH WOULD BE TO EMBRACE LONGSHOTS LIKE DIEU DU VIN OR AVANT GARDE ON TOP USING THE COMMON RACE TOP 4 AS REACHERS UNDERNEATH.

RACE 3 – THE DUBAI GOLD CUP (G2) $750,000 2 MILES TURF

#7 SECRET ADVISOR (2/1) – FINISHED THIRD LAST MONTH IN THE 2.5 MILLION RED SEA IN SAUDI ARABIA AT 1 7/8 MILES ON TURF. THAT WAS HIS BEST EFFORT IN A WHILE. TWO OF HIS THREE WINS IN HIS LAST 10 WERE HERE AT MEYDAN. HIS 2 GOOD RACES IN THE UK WERE IN 2017 FOR MUCH SMALLER PURSES.

#11 SUBJECTIVIST (3/1) – LAST RACE WAS 5 MONTHS AGO AT LONGCHAMP IN FRANCE WHERE HE WON THE G1 PRIX ROYAL OAKS AT 1 15/16 MILES FOR A PURSE OF $250K. ALL OF HIS PRIOR RACES SHOWING WERE AGAINST MUCH WEAKER COMPANY.

#8 SPANISH MISSION (6/1) – JUST FINISHED SECOND IN FRONT OF THE TOP HORSE IN THE 2.5 MILLION RED SEA. HIS RESUME IS A LOT DEEPER WITH A WIN IN A $1 MILLION RACE AT BELMONT IN SEPT 2019.  HE IS ALSO THE ONLY ONE OF THE TOP THREE TO WIN AND PLACE AT 2+ MILES.

#5 RED VERDON (10/1) – FINISHED FOURTH IN THE RED SEA COMMON RACE BEHIND SPANISH MISSION AND SECRET ADVISOR. HE HASN’T FINISHED BETTER THAN THIRD IN HIS LAST 8 TRIES AGAINST SOME LIGHTWEIGHT OPPONENTS. HE DID WIN A G2 FOR 110K LAST JULY AT LONGCHAMP.

BETTING SUMMARY   

WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE A COMMON RACE IN THE $2.5 MILLION RED SEA TURF RUN LAST MONTH IN SAUDI ARABIA. SPANISH MISSION, SECRET ADVISOR AND RED VERDON FINISHED 2-3-4. OF THE THREE, I PREFER SPANISH MISSION BASED ON HIS PAST CLASS AND HE IS 6/1 IN THE ML.

RED VERDON COULD GET INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE SUPERFECTA AT A LONGSHOT PRICE. THE QUESTION MARK IS SUBJECTIVIST. HIS LAST RACE WIN IN FRANCE WAS EXCELLENT AND THE PURSE WAS LIKELY SMALLER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE PANDEMIC. IF READY OFF A 5 MONTH LAYOFF, HE MAY GET THE WIN WITH THE RED SEA HORSES IN THE EXOTICS UNDERNEATH.

RACE 4 – THE AL QUOZ TURF SPRINT (G1) $1,000,000 6 FURLONGS TURF

#8 SPACE BLUES (5/2) – THE LIKELY BEST BET OF THE DAY, HE HAS WON 5 OF THESE TURF SPRINTS IN A ROW INCLUDING LAST MONTH IN SAUDI ARABIA.  ADMIRABLE RECORD OF 14-8-3-1 AND A MILLIONAIRE ON TURF.

#13 COWAN (5/1) – I AM PUZZLED WHY THIS 3YO IS THE SECOND ML CHOICE. YES, HE JUST RAN HIS EYEBALLS OUT BEHIND PINK KAMEHAMEHA IN SAUDI ARABIA, BUT THAT WAS AT A MILE. IN THREE TURF TRIES HE HAS YET TO WIN BUT THOSE ALL WERE JUVENILE STAKES.

#1 EQUILATERAL (7/1) – WHILE WINNING HIS 2 MEYDAN PREPS, HE IS UNDISTINGUISHED AWAY FROM DUBAI WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SECOND PLACE FINISH BEHIND CHAMPION BATTAASH IN THE KING’S STAND AT ROYAL ASCOT LAST JUNE.

#10 TRUE VALOUR (8/1) – SHIPS IN FROM THE USA. COMPETITIVE IN LAST 2 TURF SPRINT STAKES BUT HAS WON ONLY ONCE IN LAST 10 STARTS AND THAT WAS AT WOODBINE IN A NON-STAKES EVENT.

#2 EXTRAVAGANT KID (10/1) – THIS WILL BE THE 50^TH START FOR THIS 8YO. RECORD OF 49-14-16-6 SHOWS HE LIKE TO FINISH IN THE MONEY. WAS GRADED STAKES PLACED TWICE LAST FALL AT KEENELAND AND CHURCHILL DOWNS. NOT A BAD REACHER AT A PRICE.

#5 MOSS GILL (15/1) – A THIRD PLACE FINISH BEHIND BATTAASH LAST AUGUST AT YORK IS THE ONLY THING IN HIS FAVOR

BETTTING SUMMARY

SPACE BLUES IS A STANDOUT. I LIKE EXTRAVAGANT KID AT A PRICE UNDERNEATH IN THE EXOTICS. COWAN, EQUILATERAL AND TRUE VALOUR COULD BE EXOTICS FACTORS BUT WILL ONLY BE USING SPACE BLUES ON TOP.

RACE 6 – DUBAI GOLDEN SHAHEEN (G1) $1,500,000 6 FURLONGS

#8 MATERA SKY (5/1) – JUST FAILED TO LAST IN THE $1.5 MILLION RIYADH DIRT SPRINT IN SAUDI ARABIA 5 WEEKS AGO. HE ONLY MISSED BY A HEAD IN THE SAME RACE LAST YEAR AND FINISHED SECOND IN THIS RACE IN 2019. WHILE YOU COULD SAY HE RAN TOO GOOD TO LOSE, THIS IS A PATTERN AS HE ONLY SHOWS 1 WIN IN LAST 10 AND 5 SECONDS AGAINST TOP NOTCH OPPONENTS.

#13 YAUPON (5/1) – CAME INTO THE BREEDERS CUP LAST NOVEMBER UNDEFEATED IN 4 STARTS, WAS SENT OFF THE 6/5 AND PROMPTLY SHOWED NOTHING FINISHING A DISTANT EIGHTH. UPON FURTHER REFLECTION, IT IS MY FEELING THAT THE 2 STAKES HE WON, THE G3 CHICK LANG AND THE G2 AMSTERDAM WERE NOT STRONG RACES. IT APPEARS HE MAY BE AN ALL OR NOTHING TYPE. YOUR CALL

#3 COPANO KICKING (7/1) – PULLED A MAJOR UPSET NAILING MATERA SKY IN THE RIYADH DIRT SPRINT. HIS ML OF 7/1 IS VERY ENTICING AS HE HAS RUN SEVERAL HUGE RACES IN BIG RACES IN JAPAN. HE HAS WON 47.6% AND FINISHED IN THE MONEY IN 80.9% ON HIS 21 LIFETIME RACES.

#12 WILDMAN JACK (10/1) – SHIPS IN FOR DOUG O’NEILL WHO IS VERY GOOD AT SHIPPING HIS HORSES INTO LUCRATIVE SPOTS, ENTERS OFF A 4 LENGTH WIN IN THE G3 PALOS VERDES AT SANTA ANITA. THIS USED TO BE A VERY CLEVER AND SUCCESSFUL MOVE BEFORE THE WORLD CUP MOVED TO MEYDAN. THE PRICE IS RIGHT.

#7 JUSTIN (15/1) – IS A CRACK SPRINTER FROM JAPAN AND HAS REBOUNDED TO SCORE THE LAST THREE TIMES HE HAS FINSHED OFF THE BOARD. HE FINISHED SIXTH BEHIND COPANO KICKING AND MATERA SKY IN SAUDI ARABIA AND IS PRIMED FOR AN UPSET SCORE AT A BIG PRICE.

#10 RED LE ZELE (15/1) – IS ALSO A SHARP JAPANESE SPRINTER. HIS LIFETIME RECORD IS A FINE 16-7-5-1 AND HAS BEEN SECOND BY A NECK TWICE BEHIND JUSTIN IN JAPAN.

BETTING SUMMARY

DO WE GET A REPLAY OF THE RIYADH SPRINT WITH CAPANO KICKING AND MATERA SKY OR DO THE SHARP LONGSHOT SPRINTERS TURN THE TABLES? THIS RACE USED TO BELONG TO AMERICAN SPRINTERS BUT IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE SUPERFECTA COULD BE COMPLETELY FILLED BY HORSES FROM JAPAN, MATERA SKY, COPANO KICKING, JUSTIN AND RED LE ZELE.

RACE 7 – DUBAI TURF (G1) $4,000,000 1 1/8 MILE TURF

#10 LORD NORTH (3/1) – HE FINISHED 2020 WITH A FAIRLY WEAK FOURTH IN THE G1 BREEDERS CUP TURF AT KEENELAND. THIS CAME ON THE HEELS OF VERY POOR PERFORMANCE IN THE G1 QIPCO CHAMPION STAKES TENTH BEATEN 13 LENGTHS. GOSDEN HAS RESTED HIM SINCE AND IF HE REPEATS HIS G1 PRINCE OF WALES STUNNING WIN, IT’S ALL OVER. HIS TURF RECORD IS 11-5-2-1.

#9 LORD GLITTERS (7/2) – HASN’T SHOWN MUCH OUTSIDE OF DUBAI AND I AM TAKING A STAND AGAINST HIM.

#1 AL SUHAIL (4/1) – IS SIMILAR TO LORD GLITTERS. HE HAS NO PROVEN FORM OUTSIDE OF MEYDAN.

#11 REGAL REALITY (8/1) – AT LEAST HAS FORM IN THE UK, BUT HIS SUCCESS HAS BEEN VS. MUCH WEAKER COMPANY.

#12 VIN DE GARDE (12/1) – WON THE $1 MILLION DOLLAR G2 FUJI STAKES IN JAPAN LAST OCTOBER. WHILE 9 OF HIS LAST 10 HAVE BEEN AT A MILE HIS 1 RACE AT TODAY’S DISTANCE OF 1 1/8 TURF WAS A VICTORY.

BETTING SUMMARY

APPEARS TO BE LORD NORTH’S RACE TO LOSE. WILLING TO EMBRACE VIN DE GARDE IF WE GET 12/1 OR BETTER.

RACE 8 – DUBAI SHEEMA CLASSIC (G1) $5,000,000 1 1/2 MILES TURF

#7 MISHRIFF (5/2) – LIKELY THE SECOND-BEST BET ON THE WORLD CUP CARD. FRESH OFF WINNING THE $20 MILLION DOLLAR SAUDI CUP ON DIRT AS A HUGE OVERLAY 6/1 ML, 19/1 AT THE OFF, NOW RETURNS TO TURF WHICH IS HIS FORTE. LOOKING AT THE WEAK FIELD ASSEMBLED FOR THE WORLD CUP PUZZLING HE’S NOT ENTERED THERE, BUT IT DOESN’T PAY TO SECOND GUESS JOHN GOSDEN. REPEAT OF HIS WIN IN THE $1 MILLION CHANTILLY AT 1 5/16 ON TURF LAST JULY SHOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH.   

#9 CHRONO GENESIS (5/2) – SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONG THREAT HERE IN WHAT MAY BE THE MOST COMPETITIVE RACE OF THE DAY. WAS LAST SEEN WINNING A $5 MILLION DOLLAR RACE AT 1 9/16 ON TURF IN JAPAN LAST DECEMBER. REGULARLY COMPETES IN RACES WORTH $1 MILLION OR MORE AND HAS WON 4 OF THEM. DUBAI HAS BECOME JAPAN’S ATM.

#8 MOGUL (7/2) – IS NO SLOUCH, IMPRESSIVELY WINNING THE $2.5 MILLION G1 HONG KONG VASE LAST DECEMBER AT TODAYS DISTANCE. ALSO WON THE G1 GRAND PRIX DE PARIS AT LONGCHAMP LAST OCTOBER. THIS IS AIDAN O’BRIEN’S ONLY STARTER ON THIS YEAR’S WORLD CUP CARD.

#5 WALTON STREET (8/1) – HASN’T ACCOMPLISHED MUCH AWAY FROM DUBAI.

#1 CHANNEL MAKER (10/1) – HAS REALLY TURNED IT AROUND IN HIS LAST 4 STARTS, WINNING 2 G1’S AT SARATOGA, ONLY LOSING THE BC TURF BY A LENGTH AND FINISHING SECOND LAST MONTH IN A MILLION DOLLAR RACE IN SAUDI ARABIA. WHILE I DON’T EXPECT HIM TO WIN, HE CAN GET A LARGE SHARE AT DECENT ODDS.

#10 LOVE ONLY YOU (15/1) – IS FRESH FROM WINNING $1.1 MILLION DOLLAR G2 AT 1 3/8 MILES ON TURF IN MID FEBRUARY.SHE WAS ALSO THIRD ONLY BEATEN 1/2 A LENGTH IN A $1.9 MILLION DOLLAR RACE AT HANSHIN LAST NOVEMBER. BACK IN NOVEMBER 2019, SHE WON $1.9 MILLION DOLLAR RACE AT TODAY’S DISTANCE.

BETTING SUMMARY

THE TOP THREE, MISHRIFF, CHRONO GENESIS AND MOGUL SHOULD DOMINATE THS RACE. HOWEVER, CHANNEL MAKER AND LOVE ONLY YOU CAN MAKE THE EXOTICS PAY BETTER THAN YOU WOULD EXPECT ESPECIALLY IF ONE OF THE TOP 3 RUNS OUT AND THE FAVORITES ARE SPLIT BY ONE OF THESE TWO LOGICAL LONGSHOTS

RACE 9 – DUBAI WORLD CUP (G1) $12,000,000 1 1/4 MILES

#10 MYSTIC GUIDE (5/2) – THIS HORSE APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE WEAKEST FAVORITES IN THE WORLD CUP IN MY MEMORY. COMING OFF A WIN IN THE G3 RAZORBACK HANDICAP AT OAKLAWN WOULDN’T GET YOU TOP BILLING IN ANY G1 IN THE US. SECOND IN THE JOCKEY CLUB GOLD CUP, ONLY BEATING TACITUS BY A LENGTH, WINNING THE G2 JIM DANDY AND THIRD IN THE G3 PETER PAN ARE VERY LIGHT CREDENTIALS. THIS RACE OFTEN HAS ATTRACTED BREEDERS CUP CLASSIC WINNERS OR TRIPLE CROWN RACE WINNERS. I AM NOT SAYING HE CAN’T WIN BUT REST OF THE COMPETION MUST BE PRETTY SAD, WHICH IT IS.

#7 JESUS’ TEAM (6/1) – COULDN’T HANDLE KNICKS GO IN THE G1 PEGASUS OR THE BREEDERS CUP DIRT MILE. THAT HORSE CAME BACK TO FINISH A FADING FOURTH IN THE SAUDI CUP. HE DID FINISH THIRD IN THE PREAKNESS BEHIND MULTIPLE STAKES WINNER’S SWISS SKYDIVER AND AUTHENTIC BUT WAS 10 LENGTHS BEHIND.

#9 MILITARY LAW (6/1) – DOESN’T BELONG IN HERE BASED ON NON-DUBAI RACES.

#11 SALUTE THE SOLDIER (8/1) – THIS ONE ALSO HASN’T DONE ANYTHING OUTSIDE OF MEYDAN.

#3 CHUWA WIZARD (15/1) – WON A $1.8 MILLION DOLLAR RACE IN A G1 AT TODAY’S DISTANCE IN DECEMBER IN JAPAN. HE HAS 2 OTHER WINS IN $900K AND $1.2 MILLION RACES. ALSO 3 IN THE MONEY EFFORTS IN $900K TO $1.2 MILLION DOLLAR RACES.

GREAT SCOT (15/1) – WAS THIRD BEHIND MISHRIFF AND CHARLATAN AT 99-1 IN THE $20 MILLION SAUDI CUP ALTHOUGH OVER 7 LENGTHS BACK. THAT WAS HIS BEST RACE EVER.

BETTING SUMMARY  

THIS IS THE WORST WORLD CUP IN RECENT HISTORY. I WON’T BE BETTING IT EXCEPT MAYBE SOME STRAIGHT BETS ON CHUWA WIZARD IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT.